Generación de Caudales Aplicando un Método Simple de Tránsito de Avenidas a Nivel Mensual en La Cuenca La Leche, Perú
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Máximo Caicedo Yaipén
Luis Villegas Granados
Guillermo Arriola Carrasco
Royser Cayatopa Idrogo
Juan García Chumacero
Noe Marín Bardales
Resumen
El tránsito de avenidas por lo general es usado en el análisis y evaluación de inundaciones, sin embargo, ha sido poco estudiado en la extensión y determinación de caudales. Por ello, esta investigación tuvo por objetivo generar caudales aplicando un método simple de tránsito de avenidas conocido como Muskingum a nivel mensual, en la cuenca La Leche de Perú. Se escogió la cuenca en mención, pues en los últimos 40 años ha sufrido grandes inundaciones, viéndose afectada gran parte de la población, terrenos de cultivo e infraestructura local, por lo que se requiere abordar su estudio. La metodología fue del tipo aplicada y de diseño no experimental comparativo. Debido a que el tránsito de avenidas emplea los parámetros de proporcionalidad de volumen y ponderación del tránsito en intervalos de tiempo definido, se creyó conveniente usar indicadores estadísticos para optimizar la comparación de los caudales registrados en las estaciones hidrométricas y los hidrogramas de la simulación de un modelo hidrológico tipo precipitación-escorrentía para diferentes períodos de retorno, obteniéndose significativos resultados en cada caso, según la correlación de Pearson, el criterio de Schultz, el criterio de Nash-Sutcliffe, el error de balance de masas y la prueba t para dos muestras suponiendo varianzas iguales. Finalmente, se concluye que se pueden establecer caudales empleando el tránsito de avenidas con el método Muskingum en la cuenca La Leche, además pueden utilizarse en descargas simuladas donde se disponga de información meteorológica e hidrométrica.
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